KOTANA

Analytics

Coal Market 2026: Energy Transition, Export Pivot and New Price Reality

Global coal consumption hit a record 8.9 billion tonnes, yet prices have dropped 40% from 2022 peaks. Russia — the world's third-largest exporter — has redirected flows to Asia but faces railway bottlenecks and razor-thin margins at $110 per tonne.

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Gold Market 2026: $5,000 per Ounce and a New Era of Central Bank Demand

Gold has broken through $5,000 per ounce, setting more than 50 record highs in 2025. Central banks bought 863 tonnes. Russia ranks second in global mining, and its gold reserves crossed $402 billion for the first time. De-dollarisation is rewriting the rules of pricing for the metal.

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Russia's Cosmetics Market 2026: The Age of R-Beauty and the Marketplace Revolution

The perfumery and cosmetics market surpassed 1.1 trillion rubles. Domestic brands now hold 68% of shelf space. Korean cosmetics are growing 225% a year on marketplaces. The beauty industry is undergoing a deep transformation — from pharmacy-led to K-beauty and next-gen green cosmetics.

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Russia's Fashion Retail 2026: Survival and the Great Consolidation

The market reached 4.4–4.8 trillion rubles, but behind the growth lies a structural shift: offline traffic is falling, marketplaces are absorbing demand, and tax reform is finishing off the weak. For the big players — a window of opportunity. For the mid-sized — a survival exam.

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Russia's Food Retail 2025–2026: Ruble Growth, Stagnation on the Plate

Turnover exceeded 60 trillion rubles for the first time. The top 10 chains plus marketplaces now control half of all retail. Chizhik grew 67%. Private labels broke through 15% of the FMCG market. But behind the ruble growth lies a sobering truth: physical consumption is flat — only prices are rising.

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Russia's Dog Food Market 2025–2026: Humanisation, Super-Premium and the Russian Answer to Mars

Dogs in Russia have become family members — and the market has responded. Sales grew 15% in value and 9% in volume. Super-premium now accounts for 55% of the market. Russian brands have recaptured 96% of volume from multinationals. By 2030 the market could reach 1 trillion rubles.

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Russia's Tobacco Market 2025–2026: Whitening, Alternatives and the Excise Spiral

Cigarette sales reached 1.4 trillion rubles. Vapes and heated tobacco grew 9× in five years. The illicit share fell to a record 9.5% in H1 2025. But the excise spiral is accelerating again — pushing smokers back toward EAEU contraband.

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Oil Market 2025–2026: From Surplus to Shock

In 2025, Brent slid from $80 to $60 on a record surplus of 2.6 million bpd. In March 2026, a US–Israeli strike on Iran flipped the market in three weeks: oil surged 59% to $115. Two scenarios coexist — and both are live.

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Russian IPO Market in 2025: Four Instead of Twenty

Sber and VTB forecast 10–20 new issuers at the start of 2025. Four companies actually listed. Capital raised halved to 33 billion rubles, and the Moscow Exchange IPO Index lost 17%. We break down what happened, who made it to market, and what comes next.

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Russian Bond Market in 2026: The Rate-Cut Trade

The CBR is cutting rates. Investors are rotating from floaters into fixed coupons. Long OFZ bonds offer up to 25–27% total return potential. But the market faces an unprecedented refinancing overhang of 4.9–6.75 trillion rubles and rising defaults in the high-yield segment.

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Russian Bond Market in 2025: A Record Year Against the Odds

The key rate hit 21%, the economy was cooling, and defaults multiplied. Yet corporate placements set an all-time record of 9 trillion rubles, MOEX bond trading reached 42 trillion, and retail investors put 2.4× more into bonds than the year before. We explain how.

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Hotel Real Estate 2026: Slowdown Without a Stop

Record growth of 2023–2025 gives way to maturity. Hotel market revenues will add another 10% in 2026 — driven by operational efficiency rather than surging demand. Tax pressure, cost inflation and staff shortages test the industry's resilience.

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Hotel Real Estate in 2025: The Only Segment with Investment Growth

While the entire commercial real estate market contracted under rate pressure, the hotel segment bucked the trend. Investments grew 2.4×, hotel revenues exceeded 1 trillion rubles, and domestic tourism is redrawing the map of Russia.

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Commercial Real Estate in 2026: Adaptation Before Recovery

Analysts call 2026 the toughest year for Russian commercial real estate since 2022 — and the one that lays the ground for 2027's rebound. The key rate is falling, data centres and hotels emerge as new favourites, and investors shift from waiting to selective buying.

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Commercial Real Estate in 2025: Record Supply, Investment Cooling

Russia set a 10-year record with 9.1 million sq m of new commercial space delivered — while investment fell 24%. Offices hit historic vacancy lows, warehouses absorbed a wave of new supply, and retail quietly reinvented itself.

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PPP Securitization: Long Money for Infrastructure

Banking credit is expensive and short. The budget covers less than half the need. A 110 trillion ruble infrastructure gap. The solution: turning predictable state obligations under concession agreements into marketable bonds — and attracting pension funds, insurers, and retail investors into infrastructure.

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PPP Market in 2025: Maturity Under Expensive Money

Twenty years of concession law, a 7.5 trillion ruble portfolio, and a 21% key rate. The Russian public-private partnership market answered the challenge of expensive money by rebuilding its financial architecture — with concession bonds, a new national standard, and VEB as mandatory gatekeeper.

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PPP Market in 2026: A New Cycle Begins

Rates are falling, the national PPP standard is launching, and concession bonds are attracting their first takers. After two years of adapting to expensive money, the public-private partnership market enters 2026 with pent-up demand and a renewed financial architecture.

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Foreign Companies in Russia: The Year of Decisions

The US is weighing partial sanctions relief, Moscow has drafted a return framework, and the State Duma has set its terms. 2026 is the year when the trajectory will be determined — either a wave of returns becomes reality, or the window begins to close.

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Chinese Capital in Russia: Strategic Partnership in Search of Practice

The political union of Moscow and Beijing has reached a new level. Trade is hitting records, yuan settlements are the norm. But direct investment from China into Russia remains modest — and there is logic behind that gap.

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Corporate Lending in 2026: Thaw Without Spring

Rates are falling, inflation is slowing, pent-up demand has accumulated. But the regulator is in no hurry, banks tighten requirements, and a real recovery in investment lending is not expected before 2027.

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Corporate Lending in 2025: Life Under the High-Rate Dome

The Russian corporate lending market lived through 2025 under tight monetary policy: rates above 19% in H1, shrinking issuance, rising delinquency — and an unexpected autumn surge that rewrote forecasts.

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M&A Market in 2026: Awakening After the Pause

The global M&A market is heading towards $4.9 trillion. Russia emerges from a freeze, reshapes the buyer profile and shifts from survival tactics to a growth strategy.

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M&A Market in 2025: The Year of Buyers

Mergers and acquisitions in Russia and globally are going through a challenging period. High interest rates, foreign capital exit and sanctions pressure are shaping a new reality — but also opening a window of opportunity.

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Global Stock Market 2025: The Year of the AI Revolution

S&P 500 gained 17.9% — its third consecutive year of growth. Nvidia added 40% and contributed over 15 p.p. to the market's return. But beneath the rally — unprecedented concentration in AI stocks, the April tariff shock and two very different worlds: Western and Russian.

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Stock Market Forecast for 2026: The Year of Repricing

MOEX is cheap, rates are falling, geopolitics offers a chance. In the West — a potential fourth year of S&P 500 growth with a P/E above 30. Two opposing stories, one key question: will earnings justify expectations?

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Russia's DFA Market: From Experiment to Asset Class

In three years, the Russian digital financial assets market grew from zero to over 1.5 trillion rubles in cumulative issuances. 2025 was a turning point: the market crossed 1 trillion, faced its first defaults and began forming a truly diverse instrument ecosystem.

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Cybersecurity Market 2025–2026: 374 Billion Rubles and a War of Annihilation

Russia's information security market grew 23-fold in 15 years, reaching 374 billion rubles in 2025. The number of attacks rose 42%, and 76% of critical incidents now aim not to steal data — but to completely destroy infrastructure.

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